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A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem
Gary King
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Sozialwissenschaften, Recht, Wirtschaft / Politikwissenschaft
Beschreibung
This book provides a solution to the ecological inference problem, which has plagued users of statistical methods for over seventy-five years: How can researchers reliably infer individual-level behavior from aggregate (ecological) data? In political science, this question arises when individual-level surveys are unavailable (for instance, local or comparative electoral politics), unreliable (racial politics), insufficient (political geography), or infeasible (political history). This ecological inference problem also confronts researchers in numerous areas of major significance in public policy, and other academic disciplines, ranging from epidemiology and marketing to sociology and quantitative history. Although many have attempted to make such cross-level inferences, scholars agree that all existing methods yield very inaccurate conclusions about the world. In this volume, Gary King lays out a unique--and reliable--solution to this venerable problem.
King begins with a qualitative overview, readable even by those without a statistical background. He then unifies the apparently diverse findings in the methodological literature, so that only one aggregation problem remains to be solved. He then presents his solution, as well as empirical evaluations of the solution that include over 16,000 comparisons of his estimates from real aggregate data to the known individual-level answer. The method works in practice.
King's solution to the ecological inference problem will enable empirical researchers to investigate substantive questions that have heretofore proved unanswerable, and move forward fields of inquiry in which progress has been stifled by this problem.
Kundenbewertungen
Coefficient, Political methodology, Error term, Weighted arithmetic mean, Special case, Parameter (computer programming), Voter turnout, Linear regression, Result, Unit square, Notation, Probability distribution, Expected value, Qualitative research, Sampling (statistics), Aggregate data, Variable (computer science), Probability, Estimation, Proportionality (mathematics), Linear function, Parameter, Standard error, Addition, Ecology, Data set, Least squares, Conditional probability distribution, Combination, Computation, Likelihood function, Correlation and dependence, Point estimation, Standard deviation, Calculation, Variance, Equation, Regression analysis, Accounting identity, Covariate, Aggregation problem, Importance sampling, Bayesian, Confidence interval, Multivariate normal distribution, Upper and lower bounds, Variable (mathematics), Quantity, Percentile, Heteroscedasticity, Ecological regression, Normal distribution, Approximation, Cartesian coordinate system, Statistics, Tomography, Statistic, Voting, Conditional variance, Contour line, Parametrization, Posterior probability, Voting age, Accuracy and precision, Prior probability, Scientific notation, Joint probability distribution, Inference, Contingency table, Uncertainty